Weather forecast accuracy drops in poorer nations compared to wealthy ones
An analysis of global data from 1985 to 2020 shows short-term temperature predictions are significantly more accurate in high-income countries than in low-income ones.
Researchers mapped forecast precision worldwide
Manuel Linsenmeier of Goethe University Frankfurt and Jeffrey Shrader from Columbia University examined differences in weather prediction quality. They compared model outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts against actual observed conditions across the globe. The study focused primarily on short-term temperature forecasts ranging from one to seven days ahead.
Economic status drives prediction reliability
Results indicate that average forecast accuracy is higher in wealthier nations regardless of the time horizon involved. A seven-day prediction in a high-income country outperforms a one-day forecast made in a low-income country on average. This pattern holds true for predictions regarding precipitation and surface pressure as well.
Findings published in Nature Communications
The team released their results in the journal Nature Communications after reviewing decades of historical weather data. They found that location plays a major role in how useful weather information is for everyday decisions. Farmers and energy companies rely on these varying levels of accuracy depending on where they live.
Reported by one outlet
Only one outlet has published this. Nothing here has been checked against a second report, so read it as that outlet's account and follow the link below for the original.
Reported by
1 independent outlet. Headline as published. Links open the original report.