Models show climate change amplified 2024 European floods more than rainfall
Scientists used hydrological models to determine how much climate change increased flooding from Storm Boris in Central and Eastern Europe during September 2024.
Study moves beyond simple rain analysis
Previous attribution studies focused only on extreme precipitation amounts rather than flood hazards. Researchers Peter Miersch and colleagues from the UFZ investigated how changes in rainfall affected flood peaks. They combined climate simulations with hydrological models to trace rainfall into flooding events.
Flood magnitude linked to human influence
The team found that global warming intensified precipitation during Storm Boris which hit Poland, Czechia and Austria. Although more rain does not always mean proportionally larger floods, the size of this effect remains clear for this event. The study clarifies the extent to which anthropogenic climate change contributed to the disaster.
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