Climate change cost estimates vary by extreme weather attribution method
Researchers explain how different calculation methods produce conflicting figures for climate change costs linked to specific extreme weather events.
Two main calculation approaches exist
Scientists compare actual extreme weather events to hypothetical scenarios without climate change to estimate damage. One method measures how much more likely an event became, while another measures how much more damaging it became.
Hurricane Harvey shows large gaps
Hurricane Harvey caused roughly $90 billion in damage during 2017. A frequency-change approach estimated that 75 percent of these costs were linked to climate change, whereas an intensity-change approach put the figure at only 15 percent.
Discrepancies suggest method limits
The large difference between these two estimates implies technical limitations or theoretical issues in one of the methods. Researchers note that observations and climate modeling might not accurately capture locally specific effects of extreme weather.
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