Better police work may increase art thefts according to new study
Researchers at Wake Forest University and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a paper in the Journal of Cultural Economics suggesting that improved law enforcement can lead to more stolen masterpieces.
Study finds counterintuitive result
A model analyzing strategic interactions between museum administrators, thieves, and police shows that higher recovery rates can backfire. When governments invest in specialized units to solve art crimes, public recovery rates rise significantly. This increase allows thieves to adjust their tactics rather than stop stealing.
Game theory explains incentives
The research uses game theory to map how one person's optimal choice depends on the actions of others. Professor Frederick Chen notes that reality involves economic games of incentives and risk management instead of high-tech battles. Museums must consider budget trade-offs when deciding on security measures against these shifting incentives.
Policy solutions need review
Intuitive public policy calls for tougher penalties and better-funded task forces might result in more art crime. The study warns that some standard solutions can produce the opposite of intended outcomes. Policymakers should look at how increased police capability changes the behavior of criminal groups.
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