French polls show Le Pen and Melenchon leading 2027 race

Poll results show top contenders

Data from Toluna Harris Interactive reveals Marine Le Pen securing between 34% and 36% support in first-round voting intentions. A similar survey conducted last month placed her slightly higher at between 35% and 37%. Jean-Luc Melenchon of the France Unbowed party appears in second place across five different scenarios. His polling numbers show either 18% or 19% depending on the specific model tested by researchers.

Political landscape shifts after Macron

Emmanuel Macron is ending his final five-year term while leaving behind a hollowed-out political centre and weak economy. This situation creates an opening for hardline parties to gain significant ground in the national arena. At the forefront of potential arenas, the far-right National Rally and far-left La France Insoumise are placing themselves prominently. Traditional governing parties search for unified strategies to prevent a polarized runoff between these two frontrunners.

Historical context for candidates

In 2012, 2017 and 2022 Melenchon ran three times for president yet failed to reach the second round. Le Pen also ran in those same three elections and lost in the second round in 2017 and 2022 to Macron. A decisive runoff is anticipated on May 2, 2027, following the first round of the presidential vote scheduled for April 18, 2027.