Prediction markets now host bets on US measles cases and vaccine approvals

New betting options emerge online

Users can now place wagers on when the FDA will approve a skin-cancer vaccine or whether the CDC will change its recommendations. The platforms also offer contracts predicting how many measles cases the US might see in 2026 and if it will lose elimination status this year. A sign near a Brooklyn elementary school promoted these markets while asking if any state would end vaccine markets. Matthew Eisenberg from Johns Hopkins noted that these companies list contracts on anything with a checkable outcome.

Regulatory gaps allow unregulated growth

Lia Nower of Rutgers University stated that gambling currently operates like the wild west without federal limits or state guidelines. These markets position themselves as financial derivatives under federal commodities laws overseen by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Several states have filed lawsuits alleging these sites function as unregulated gambling operations despite their claims of being derivatives. Critics warn that trial participants could change behavior to affect outcomes while drug companies might alter trial timing.

Companies defend transparency claims

Dani Lever from Kalshi argued that predictions on drug trials would improve transparency even though the company did not respond fully to questions. Eisenberg warned that markets reward leaks rather than just bribery risks for reviewers and investigators with nonpublic information. Advocates could place bets on ending vaccine mandates before introducing new laws to do so without facing existing legal barriers.